Date: Tue, 21 Jan 2003 22:26:38 +0000 (GMT)
From: James Simmons <jsimmons@infradead.org>
To: Andre Hedrick <andre@linux-ide.org>
cc: linux-kernel@vger.kernel.org
Subject: [OT] Re: Linux in the News! WooHoo!
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.10.10301182051330.8260-100000@master.linux-ide.org>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.44.0301212108460.4030-100000@phoenix.infradead.org>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII
Sender: linux-kernel-owner@vger.kernel.org


> http://eastbay.bizjournals.com/eastbay/stories/2003/01/20/story1.html
> 
> The hardcopy edition is better.
> It has sweet little TUX snacking on a Windows Logo!
> Go to http://eastbay.bizjournals.com/eastbay/ next saturday and see this
> weeks print cover on the web!

   Linux will NEVER move into the desktop market!!! Linux has found it 
niche in the server market and some aspects of the embedded market. Well 
it is struggling to keep alive in the embedded space. Why is this?
   Number one reason it will never move into the desktop market is the 
free beer mentality. Alot of people expect something for nothing or 
next to it. I not just talking users. Even multi-billion dollar companies. 
I had a large company tell me "You are charging us? That is not very open 
source of you!!" As for end users the same problem exist. Plus companies
toke note that it would cost them money to hire some to port their 
software. 
   The only reason linux toke off the last few years is because companies 
thought it could make pure profits by using free stuff. Well they are 
discovering linux does have a cost. You have to actually hire programmers 
and you need people to actually understand linux. We will see linux 
adaption slow down if not come to a halt in all markets except the server
and none GUI interface embedded devices such as telecom devcies.
   Some at this point might stand up and shout what about PDAs. First this
is a very vertical market. In the real world you see lots of Palm Pilots 
and a few iPAQs here and there. I never seen a linux PDA in large use. 
iPAQs can run linux but they will never ship will linux. I worked with 
several experimental PDAs. Several that never made it to market and even 
more the companies deceided linux was to immature compared to Windows CE 
so moved to using a M$ product. 
   What is the immature? The bare basics is stable and fine but people 
want more than just to login in via a serial console. I seen alot of nice 
development of new types of GUI. Out of the few dozen vendors all but 
one decided not to go with X windows. BTW that one moved over to windows 
CE later. These companies felt X was a hinderance. So they went to other 
GUIs like microwindows or embedded Qt. Still there is a lack of apps and
a even greater lack of comapnies wanting to write apps for linux PDAs. 
   Now for the issue of the desktop itself. We have the basic two problems 
above. The biggest issue with X is the long developement cycle. The good 
news is since NVIDIA, which makes there own X server and drivers, is the 
dominate graphics card we don't feel it so much. If we had 20 to 30 
graphics cards with equal market space we would notice. Especially when 
the graphics cards were have 6 month cycles before they become obsolete.
    
    So what is my PROOF of all this. First take a look at the linux jobs 
out there. You will notices System Admin jobs. Several of those in fact. 
Then the development jobs are iSCSI or network card or some other aspect 
of network programming. Now look for a GNOME or KDE programming job 
outside of a distro looking to hire someone. I seen only one in Austalia.
Now try a search in flipdog.com, CareerBuilder.com, or HotJobs.com for a 
GNOME or KDE jobs. Well what do you know. No jobs avaible. So no company 
is looking to either port there software to linux nor create new linux 
software. Mind you a few companies tried like lokigames. Now they are 
gone. Next level is graphics and multimedia programming in linux. Again 
nothing really avaiable. 
     Now the next question is what companies invest in non sever related 
matterial for linux i.e mulitmedia, GNOME, KDE, X outside of the distros. 
I know people there are people on the list from IBM, HP etc who are 
reading this email. Speak up if this in not the case. The only one I knew
of was VA linux. They hired several of the DRI/X windows developers. To 
my knowledge they no longer work there. So the only companies pursing non 
server related are the distros. Now the question is hwo many will be left 
soon. One of them filed for a form of bankruptcy a few days ago. Very few 
remain. Also we are seeing the strongs one move to where the money is. The 
server market. So I wouldn't count on any R&D from anyone to much to move 
linux to the desktop.


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